Tips of the day

Segunda DivisiónWon3:2

AlmeriaCastellón

Why this pick: Almería were the second-best home team in the Segunda División, behind only Racing. The difference between their home and away performances is striking: they scored 52 goals at home compared to just 29 away from home. The first match ended without a winner, and it was clear that Almería were primarily focused on protecting the draw, while Castellón played with greater attacking intent. This time, however, a very different scenario is expected in the return leg, with Almería likely to play far more aggressively on their home ground.

FriendliesLost5:1

TogoBenin

Why this pick: Togo and Benin enter this friendly with very similar profiles, both relying more on defensive structure than open attacking football. Togo remain unbeaten in recent matches but continue to struggle creating consistent chances, with most games finishing under 2.5 goals. Benin show the same pattern, especially against teams of similar level, where matches are often slow and tactical. Their heavier defeats mainly came against top African nations, while games versus balanced opponents stayed tight and low scoring. Previous meetings also support the expectation of a cautious match with limited goals and few clear chances.

FriendliesLost1:1

ArmeniaMoldova

Why this pick: France enter their final friendly before the World Cup with clear expectations to respond after the recent defeat against Ivory Coast. Despite the loss, Deschamps still used many key attacking players, showing the importance of building rhythm before the tournament. Northern Ireland remain a compact and disciplined side capable of making matches uncomfortable, especially through defensive organization and physical play. However, the overall gap in quality and attacking talent strongly favors France, who should control the game far more effectively than in their previous friendly.

Why this pick: McCabe has spent most of his career playing very little on clay, preferring faster surfaces. This season he played just one match at Roland Garros before switching immediately to grass, where he has already played two matches in Birmingham and now in ’s-Hertogenbosch. That transition is important, since adapting from clay to grass is never easy, even for top players. Bergs, on the other hand, comes in with last year’s final in mind, but without any match practice on grass yet this season after his clay campaign and Roland Garros exit. Bergs is still the favorite on paper, but McCabe’s comfort on faster surfaces and his recent grass rhythm suggest he should be competitive, especially on serve. This matchup has strong potential for a tight battle, with sets likely decided by small margins and enough hold games to push the total over 21.5.