UEFA Nations LeagueLost2:3
England
SpainPickHome or drawOdds 1.68
Why this pick: The Nations League match is clearly not a priority for the Spaniards. Therefore, there will be no tragedy if the national teams share the points today. In general, I personally do not agree that La Furia Roja are favourites today. Yes, at the World Cup the team acted as efficiently as possible and allowed their opponents very little, but a certain amount of time has passed since then. It is impossible to maintain such concentration constantly.
In play
Czech RepublicCroatia
Pick••••••••••••In the app
UEFA Nations LeagueLost1:2 
Bulgaria
LuxembourgPickBTTS noOdds 1.83
Why this pick: Over the last 4 years, Luxembourg and Bulgaria have played each other 3 times. The result was just 1 goal scored in total across the 3 matches. As you can understand, the selected option came through every time. I expect the same now.
UEFA Nations LeagueWon0:0 
Slovenia
ScotlandPickUnder 2.5Odds 1.73
Why this pick: These are national-team rivals in the group. Neither side is noticeably superior in class; the teams are evenly matched. I expect fairly cautious and pragmatic football with a minimum of goals scored and chances created.
The rest of today’s picks are in the app
We publish one pick a day here in full. The whole list, with the odds and the model’s reasoning for every match, opens in the Sport AInsights app.
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